Background Briefing:
Vietnam-United States Relations:
High-Level Visits on the Horizon
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 10, 2015
[client name deleted]
Vietnamese Foreign Ministry sources have privately revealed that Vietnam and the
United State are presently discussing arranging a visit to the US for the Secretary
General of the Vietnam Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong. However, the two
sides have not agreed about protocol procedures. Vietnam is not pleased with the
refusal of President Barack Obama to receive Secretary General Trong in the Oval
Office at The White House.
We request your assessment of the following:
Do you think the U.S. side will agree to receive the Secretary General in the Oval
Office?
What are the hurdles for the U.S. in arranging a visit by the party Secretary General?
What status will the United States accord Nguyen Phu Trong?
President Obama will visit Vietnam next year, so will Trong’s visit take place before
or after Obama’s visit?
ASSESSMENT: Vietnam has been pressing the US for at least a year to host a visit by
Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong.
Protocol has been a major issue. Trong has no direct counterpart in the United States
other than the head of the Democratic Party. President Obama is not his counterpart
in strict protocol terms. The U.S. would be making a big concession to Vietnam to
arrange meeting between Trong and Obama in the Oval Office.
What is in it for the US? Vietnam continues to arrest bloggers, thus undermining
what limited progress Vietnam has made in addressing human rights issues.
U.S. officials like the term "deliverables". What exactly will Trong do to advance
bilateral relations if he gets a meeting with Obama in the Oval Office? Trong gets
publicity and a degree of legitimacy for the Vietnam Communist Party.
There has been some speculation that Vietnam would like Trong to visit Washington,
and get Xi Jinping and Obama to visit Vietnam.
Vietnam's main focus should be on getting a firm commitment from the U.S. that
President Obama will visit Hanoi in November when he attends the APEC summit in
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
Manila and the ASEAN and related summits in Kuala Lumpur. If Trong were to visit it
would have to be before the end of the year while Trong still holds office. July would
be an appropriate time – the twentieth anniversary of the establishment of
diplomatic relations (July 1995-July 2015).
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam-United States Relations: High-Level
Visits on the Horizon,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 10, 2015. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
Vietnam-United States Relations:
High-Level Visits on the Horizon
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 10, 2015
[client name deleted]
Vietnamese Foreign Ministry sources have privately revealed that Vietnam and the
United State are presently discussing arranging a visit to the US for the Secretary
General of the Vietnam Communist Party, Nguyen Phu Trong. However, the two
sides have not agreed about protocol procedures. Vietnam is not pleased with the
refusal of President Barack Obama to receive Secretary General Trong in the Oval
Office at The White House.
We request your assessment of the following:
Do you think the U.S. side will agree to receive the Secretary General in the Oval
Office?
What are the hurdles for the U.S. in arranging a visit by the party Secretary General?
What status will the United States accord Nguyen Phu Trong?
President Obama will visit Vietnam next year, so will Trong’s visit take place before
or after Obama’s visit?
ASSESSMENT: Vietnam has been pressing the US for at least a year to host a visit by
Secretary General Nguyen Phu Trong.
Protocol has been a major issue. Trong has no direct counterpart in the United States
other than the head of the Democratic Party. President Obama is not his counterpart
in strict protocol terms. The U.S. would be making a big concession to Vietnam to
arrange meeting between Trong and Obama in the Oval Office.
What is in it for the US? Vietnam continues to arrest bloggers, thus undermining
what limited progress Vietnam has made in addressing human rights issues.
U.S. officials like the term "deliverables". What exactly will Trong do to advance
bilateral relations if he gets a meeting with Obama in the Oval Office? Trong gets
publicity and a degree of legitimacy for the Vietnam Communist Party.
There has been some speculation that Vietnam would like Trong to visit Washington,
and get Xi Jinping and Obama to visit Vietnam.
Vietnam's main focus should be on getting a firm commitment from the U.S. that
President Obama will visit Hanoi in November when he attends the APEC summit in
Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123
2
Manila and the ASEAN and related summits in Kuala Lumpur. If Trong were to visit it
would have to be before the end of the year while Trong still holds office. July would
be an appropriate time – the twentieth anniversary of the establishment of
diplomatic relations (July 1995-July 2015).
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam-United States Relations: High-Level
Visits on the Horizon,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 10, 2015. All
background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself
from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.
Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.
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